What Changed This Week
- Prime Rate: unchanged at 6.75%.
- SOFR: 3.66% to 3.63% (-3 bps).
- Fed Funds target range: unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.
- 2Y Treasury: 3.76% to 3.78% (+2 bps). 5Y: 3.87% to 3.91% (+4 bps). 10Y: 4.26% to 4.30% (+4 bps). 30Y: 4.87% to 4.89% (+2 bps).
- BBB corporate OAS: 1.02% to 1.00% (tightened 2 bps). High Yield OAS: 2.84% to 2.85% (+1 bp, effectively flat).
- Next catalyst: FOMC statement Apr 29 at 2:00 PM ET. No Summary of Economic Projections this meeting.
Two small signals diverged this week. Treasury yields moved a few basis points higher while policy rates and credit held steady. Treasuries across the belly and long end drifted higher, keeping yields near their pre-March-CPI band. Investment-grade credit spreads tightened further, and high-yield stayed steady. Markets paused ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.
Key Takeaways
- Policy rates are not moving ahead of the FOMC, so variable-rate borrowers tied to Prime or SOFR face no repricing risk this week regardless of what fixed-rate quotes do.
- The 4 bps drift higher at the 5Y and 10Y points is within normal weekly noise, not a trend reversal; markets held the supply-shock read of March CPI through the week.
- BBB spreads tightening to 1.00% while Treasuries rose indicates risk appetite is expanding, not contracting, a constructive signal for commercial credit availability.
- The curve steepened 2 bps (10Y-2Y at +52 bps), marginally supportive for longer-duration lending.
- The Apr 29 statement, not intra-week Treasury noise, will set the direction for the next several weeks of quotes.
- 5Y and 10Y breakevens rose only 1 bp, consistent with markets treating recent inflation prints as supply-driven rather than a reacceleration.
Current Rates
| Benchmark | Apr 21, 2026 | Apr 14, 2026 | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prime Rate | 6.75% | 6.75% | Unchanged |
| SOFR | 3.63% | 3.66% | -3 bps |
| Fed Funds upper bound | 3.75% | 3.75% | Unchanged |
| Fed Funds lower bound | 3.50% | 3.50% | Unchanged |
| Effective Fed Funds | 3.64% | 3.64% | Unchanged |
| 2Y Treasury | 3.78% | 3.76% | +2 bps |
| 5Y Treasury | 3.91% | 3.87% | +4 bps |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.30% | 4.26% | +4 bps |
| 30Y Treasury | 4.89% | 4.87% | +2 bps |
| 10Y-2Y spread | +52 bps | +50 bps | +2 bps steeper |
| BBB corporate OAS | 1.00% | 1.02% | -2 bps (tighter) |
| High Yield OAS | 2.85% | 2.84% | +1 bp (steady) |
The week-over-week picture is easier to read as a bar chart than a column of basis point deltas.
Short End: Prime, SOFR, Fed Funds
The short end is anchored. Prime remains at 6.75%, where it has been since the last Fed move, and it will not change until the FOMC acts. SOFR slipped 3 bps to 3.63%, keeping overnight funding comfortably inside the Fed's 3.50% to 3.75% target corridor and consistent with ample liquidity. The effective fed funds rate printed at 3.64%, near the corridor midpoint. For business owners on Prime-indexed lines of credit or SOFR-linked term loans, the week was a non-event.
Belly and Long End: 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y
Treasuries drifted higher across the curve: 2Y +2 bps to 3.78%, 5Y +4 bps to 3.91%, 10Y +4 bps to 4.30%, 30Y +2 bps to 4.89%. The 10Y-2Y spread steepened 2 bps to +52 bps. None of these moves are large enough on their own to reprice fixed-quote loans meaningfully; they sit within normal weekly volatility and still bracket the levels that prevailed before the March CPI print. As we noted last week, markets held the supply-shock reading of that print rather than treating it as a fresh inflation acceleration. 5Y and 10Y breakevens nudging only 1 bp higher supports that interpretation.
Credit Conditions
Credit spreads moved in the opposite direction of Treasuries. Investment-grade BBB option-adjusted spreads tightened 2 bps to 1.00%, continuing the gradual compression we have tracked for several weeks. High yield was effectively flat at 2.85%. Tightening credit alongside rising risk-free yields is a constructive combination: investors are demanding less compensation for corporate default risk even as the risk-free curve repriced slightly higher. That pattern typically reflects improving balance-sheet conditions and stable default expectations, which flows through to commercial lending capacity at the margin. See our commercial bank lending trends hub for the broader capacity picture.
Estimated Loan Rate Ranges
| Product | Rate Structure | Typical Range |
|---|---|---|
| SBA 7(a) (variable) | Prime + 2.25% to Prime + 3.00% | 9.00% to 9.75% |
| SBA 504 (20Y, debenture) | Fixed | 6.00% to 6.50% |
| Commercial term loan (5-7Y fixed) | Fixed | 7.25% to 9.50% |
| Business line of credit (variable) | Prime + 1.00% to Prime + 4.50% | 7.75% to 11.25% |
| Equipment financing | Fixed | 7.00% to 11.00% |
| Bridge / short-term | Fixed, short term | 10.00% to 14.00% |
What Borrowers Should Note
Prime-indexed quotes are unchanged this week. Any SBA 7(a) variable quote, any working capital line of credit, any floating-rate term loan pegged to Prime or SOFR comes in at the same rate it would have last Tuesday. Fixed-quote pricing on term loans, SBA 504 debentures, and equipment financing drifted up a few basis points tracking the Treasury move; on a $500,000, 7-year term loan, a 4 bps drift is roughly $12 per month in payment, which is immaterial relative to normal lender-to-lender pricing variance. The decision to lock a fixed rate before next week's FOMC is a business-certainty decision, not a rate-timing decision. If locking removes a variable from your plan and the quote fits your coverage ratios, lock it. If waiting a week costs nothing operationally, waiting is also fine. Our interest rate strategy framework walks through the decision tree.
What to Watch
The Federal Open Market Committee meets April 28-29, 2026, with the policy statement released Wednesday April 29 at 2:00 PM ET. This meeting does not include updated Summary of Economic Projections (no dot plot), so the market read will rest on the statement language and Chair Powell's press conference. The next CPI print lands approximately May 13, which will be the first inflation reading after the statement and will shape expectations for the June meeting. Between now and Apr 29, expect narrow intraday ranges in Treasuries as desks avoid large directional bets into the meeting. For continuity with prior weeks, see our April 14 snapshot.